IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.8	#224
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.6	#164
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.9	#225

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.8	#241

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.4%	9.5%	4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.6	14.0	14.8

.500 or above	33.4%	60.4%	29.3%
.500 or above in Conference	52.9%	72.0%	49.9%
Conference Champion	4.9%	8.3%	4.4%
Last Place in Conference	6.4%	1.9%	7.1%

First Four	1.0%	1.3%	1.0%
First Round	4.8%	8.8%	4.2%
Second Round	0.4%	1.0%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Connecticut (Away) - 13.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 1.3	0.0 - 1.3
Quad 1b	0.1 - 1.7	0.2 - 3.0
Quad 2	0.8 - 3.6	0.9 - 6.7
Quad 3	2.9 - 5.1	3.8 - 11.8
Quad 4	8.7 - 4.7	12.5 - 16.5

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2018	96	@ Connecticut	L	67-76	13%
Nov 10, 2018	12	@ Syracuse	L	57-76	2%
Nov 16, 2018	279	UMKC	W	74-72	59%
Nov 17, 2018	235	Green Bay	W	76-75	52%
Nov 25, 2018	136	Lipscomb	L	77-83	39%
Nov 27, 2018	128	Northern Kentucky	L	69-75	38%
Dec 10, 2018	99	@ Marshall	L	77-85	15%
Dec 13, 2018	322	@ Samford	W	80-74	61%
Dec 18, 2018	138	@ Wright St.	L	67-73	21%
Dec 21, 2018	275	IUPUI	W	69-67	68%
Dec 29, 2018	51	@ Missouri	L	63-76	8%
Jan 03, 2019	151	@ Murray St.	L	68-73	26%
Jan 05, 2019	188	@ Austin Peay	L	72-75	32%
Jan 10, 2019	109	@ Belmont	L	69-76	19%
Jan 12, 2019	259	@ Tennessee St.	W	67-65	47%
Jan 17, 2019	308	Southeast Missouri St.	W	77-72	75%
Jan 19, 2019	285	Tennessee Martin	W	70-67	69%
Jan 24, 2019	287	Tennessee Tech	W	74-71	69%
Jan 26, 2019	146	Jacksonville St.	L	66-71	44%
Jan 31, 2019	320	@ SIU Edwardsville	W	76-70	59%
Feb 02, 2019	298	@ Eastern Illinois	W	70-66	52%
Feb 07, 2019	259	Tennessee St.	W	67-65	65%
Feb 09, 2019	109	Belmont	L	69-76	35%
Feb 14, 2019	273	Eastern Kentucky	W	74-72	67%
Feb 16, 2019	188	Austin Peay	L	72-75	52%
Feb 21, 2019	146	@ Jacksonville St.	L	66-71	26%
Feb 23, 2019	287	@ Tennessee Tech	W	74-71	50%
Feb 28, 2019	151	Murray St.	L	68-73	44%
Mar 02, 2019	273	@ Eastern Kentucky	W	74-72	48%
Projected Record						12.5 - 16.5	8.8 - 9.2

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.7	1.4	1.3	0.9	0.4	0.1		4.9	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.7	2.5	1.7	0.9	0.1				7.1	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.5	2.2	3.6	2.2	0.5	0.0					9.1	3rd
4th									0.0	0.5	2.8	4.2	2.3	0.4	0.0						10.2	4th
5th								0.0	0.6	3.1	4.8	2.3	0.4	0.1							11.2	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	3.0	4.9	2.4	0.4	0.0								11.0	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	2.5	5.0	2.5	0.3	0.0									10.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	2.3	4.9	2.1	0.4	0.0										10.0	8th
9th				0.0	0.2	1.5	3.8	2.4	0.5	0.0											8.5	9th
10th			0.0	0.3	1.9	3.0	2.1	0.6	0.0												8.0	10th
11th		0.0	0.5	1.4	2.1	1.5	0.4	0.0													5.8	11th
12th	0.1	0.5	1.2	1.0	0.5	0.2	0.0														3.5	12th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.7	2.7	4.8	6.4	8.9	10.7	11.3	11.4	10.9	9.3	8.2	5.8	3.6	2.2	0.9	0.4	0.1			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.4		0.4	0.0
16-2	93.8%	0.9		0.7	0.2	0.0
15-3	58.1%	1.3		0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0
14-4	37.9%	1.4		0.6	0.6	0.1	0.0
13-5	12.3%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.8%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.9%	4.9		2.6	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		67.6%	56.6%	10.9%	10.9					0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.1	0.0			0.0		25.2%
17-1	0.4%		57.1%	53.2%	4.0%	12.5										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0		0.2		8.4%
16-2	0.9%		40.5%	40.5%		13.1											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.6
15-3	2.2%		29.1%	29.1%	0.0%	13.7												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.5		0.0%
14-4	3.6%		19.4%	19.1%	0.4%	14.3													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	2.9		0.4%
13-5	5.8%		14.7%	14.7%		14.8													0.0	0.0	0.3	0.4	0.2	5.0
12-6	8.2%		10.1%	10.1%		15.0													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.2	7.4
11-7	9.3%		5.0%	5.0%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	8.9
10-8	10.9%		4.8%	4.8%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	10.3
9-9	11.4%		2.7%	2.7%		15.9																0.0	0.3	11.1
8-10	11.3%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																0.0	0.1	11.1
7-11	10.7%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																0.0	0.1	10.6
6-12	8.9%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	8.9
5-13	6.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.4
4-14	4.8%																							4.8
3-15	2.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.7
2-16	1.7%																							1.7
1-17	0.5%																							0.5
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		5.4%	5.3%	0.0%	14.6					0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.1	1.5	1.8	94.6		0.0%